Mesoscale Discussion 1712
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080840Z - 081115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may exist with storms
   moving eastward early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A broken, low-topped line of storms should continue to
   move east-northeastward from southern Ontario and Lake Erie across
   parts of western NY over the next few hours. Strong low/mid-level
   flow preceding an upper trough is present over this region, with
   recent VWPs from KBUF showing southwesterly winds rapidly
   strengthening to around 50 kt only 1 km AGL. Latest surface
   observations along/near the shore of Lake Erie have shown an
   increase in temperatures into the low to mid 70s, with low 60s
   surface dewpoints also present. Modifying a RAP forecast sounding
   for current conditions at KBUF suggests a narrow, skinny CAPE
   profile exists in the boundary layer. Given the strength of the
   low-level flow and the presence of weak MLCAPE, there may be some
   potential for isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds associated with
   the broken line to reach the surface. Even so, this wind threat is
   expected to remain quite isolated through the early morning hours,
   and watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 09/08/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42357938 42417952 42597924 42827901 43227913 43367893
               43437831 43207827 42827844 42477899 42357938