Mesoscale Discussion 1703
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021

   Areas affected...Northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071725Z - 071830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The need for a watch in parts of northern Illinois is
   uncertain. The most probable scenario is that stronger storms will
   develop later this afternoon along the advancing front after
   inhibition weakens further. Trends, however, will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Storm motion with the ongoing convection in southern
   Wisconsin is expected to keep that activity near and perhaps just
   south into Illinois. Weak convection has developed in far northwest
   Illinois along a pre-frontal boundary. So far this new convection
   has struggled. Morning observed soundings from DVN and ILX showed
   low-level dry air that is likely contributing to MLCIN. It seems
   most likely that a few more hours of heating and moistening will be
   needed, along with greater low-level forcing along the front, for
   more substantial development to occur. That being said, model
   guidance has been poor with timing and evolution of convection this
   morning. A watch is not expected in the short term, but trends will
   continue to be monitored in northern Illinois.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41309005 41609019 42069018 42278991 42378975 42528922
               42518820 42498775 42528752 42308723 41598728 41558760
               41348945 41309005