Mesoscale Discussion 1692
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast WY...western SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032059Z - 032230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through
   this evening.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
   severe threats. A watch is not currently expected, however trends
   will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus
   across the higher terrain of northeast WY, where strong heating of
   lower to mid 50s surface dew points has resulted in MLCAPE of
   500-locally 750 J/kg.  Westerly mid-level flow above low-level
   southerly winds has resulted in a favorable environment for
   supercells, with effective shear averaging 50 kts.  Isolated severe
   thunderstorms are expected to develop the remainder of this
   afternoon across northeast WY, posing a risk for large hail and
   strong/possibly damaging gusts.  Storms may evolve into a cluster
   with time, although diminishing instability will limit the severe
   risk with eastward extent.

   A watch is not expected given the anticipated isolated coverage,
   however convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Bunting/Grams.. 09/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44150603 45100509 45080401 44710326 44330271 43960259
               43320249 43130391 43210530 42970603 43250616 43560618
               44150603