Mesoscale Discussion 1639
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

   Areas affected...much of northern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291705Z - 291900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some producing damaging wind gusts and
   marginally severe hail, are expected to develop around 19Z over
   northern Lower Michigan.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across Lower MI well ahead of
   a cold front approaching Lake MI from the west. Scattered convection
   is already developing along the front from southeast WI into the
   eastern Upper MI. 

   The greatest threat of severe storms appears to be over the northern
   half of Lower MI. Here, deep-layer shear will average near 40 kt,
   aiding storm longevity. A line, or broken line of cells is expected
   form ahead of the front, with both damaging wind and marginal hail
   risk. Although shear decreases rapidly farther south into central
   and southern MI, favorable instability as well as sufficient mean
   wind speeds suggest at least isolated strong wind gusts are
   possible.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/29/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   45338330 44718319 44348323 43668370 43378415 43348469
               43378535 43718586 44468589 45088554 45758508 45908454
               45688383 45338330