Mesoscale Discussion 1628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1205 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

   Areas affected...South-Central Pennsylvania...Western
   Maryland...Eastern West Virginia...and Northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281705Z - 281900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest
   storms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows strong insolation this morning
   has given way to scattered convective development over the northern
   part of region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s F
   amid rich low-level moisture (dew point temperatures in the upper
   60s and low 70s F). This is yielding around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   With weak convective inhibition and continued
   heating/destabilization, additional pulse-like storms are expected
   to develop throughout the afternoon and gradually move southeastward
   with time. Weak flow throughout the atmosphere will limit storm
   organization, however, a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be
   possible with the strongest storms given at least marginal low-level
   lapse rates near 8 C/km that should develop, particularly over parts
   of northern Virginia and vicinity later this afternoon. Given the
   expectation for an isolated damaging wind threat, watch issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Karstens/Grams.. 08/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   39387920 40087891 40537913 40937915 41017832 40767758
               40077712 39157722 38397754 38077818 37947903 38077944
               38447964 38977948 39387920