Mesoscale Discussion 1592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

   Areas affected...northeast Iowa...extreme southeast Minnesota and
   southwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241744Z - 241915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind may undergo an increase across
   northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin this
   afternoon. Overall scenario is not particularly high confidence, but
   trends are being monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon a line of storms has recently 
   undergone some intensification along the southern MN / northern IA
   border. These storms are developing on the cool side of an east-west
   oriented convective outflow boundary. South of this boundary the
   atmosphere is destabilizing with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg
   supported by strong diabatic heating of the moist surface layer.
   Theta-e advection from the unstable warm sector may contribute to
   further intensification of storms north of the boundary. It also
   appears that an MCV or meso-gamma-scale circulation is evident along
   the northern end of the line which might help to sustain an
   organized linear MCS next few hours despite tendency for slight
   warming aloft.

   ..Dial/Kerr.. 08/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43539274 43769148 43728986 43178960 42698997 42549171
               42669328 43539274