Mesoscale Discussion 1568
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

   Areas affected...central kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202057Z - 202200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms with a threat for damaging winds and
   hail are expected to form along a cold front this afternoon/evening.
   A weather watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...On the southern fringes of a northern Plains trough,
   afternoon visible imagery showed towering cumulus developing along a
   southwest to northeast oriented cold front across Kansas. Severe
   thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon/evening as the
   environment continues to destabilize to the east of the front. SPC
   MESOANALYSIS shows a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
   much of Kansas with the greatest instability located across the
   northeastern portions of the State. Within this area, steadily
   increasing mid-level flow will support 25-40 kts of effective shear
   this afternoon/evening. Strong forcing along the front and DCAPE
   greater than 1300 J/kg will support strong downdrafts and surface
   cold pools. As such, a few organized clusters or line segments
   capable of damaging winds may evolve. The degree of buoyancy may
   also support a severe hail risk despite modest mid-level lapse
   rates.

   Farther southwest along the front, effective shear and instability
   are more limited. While isolated severe storm development across
   southwestern and central Kansas is possible, uncertainty on storm
   coverage remains much higher. Convective trends will be monitored
   for a possible weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37219814 36959963 37230005 38069926 39039836 40049761
               40399741 40519707 40549620 40439547 39909511 39159509
               38469551 38059620 37609709 37519725 37359766 37219814