Mesoscale Discussion 1562
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021

   Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192246Z - 192345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind threat may continue for a few more
   hours, watch issuance not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms entering
   portions of southwest Oklahoma, with a history of producing damaging
   wind gusts, including a 71 kt gust at the Hollis, OK, mesonet site
   at 2210 UTC. These storms have formed in environment characterized
   by MLCAPE near 3500-4000 J/kg and weak deep-layer shear. Relatively
   steep low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and modest low-level shear
   (25 kt 0-3 km AGL per KFDR VAD) is likely enough to support a
   continued threat of damaging wind gusts for a few more hours, at
   least until day time heating subsides. Given the current expectation
   for an isolated wind threat, watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Karstens/Thompson.. 08/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33869954 34430018 35479969 35499816 33779819 33869954