Mesoscale Discussion 1544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

   Areas affected...western Carolinas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 444...

   Valid 171635Z - 171800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 444 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for a tornado will likely focus through the
   midday and into the early afternoon in two areas:  1) occasional
   strengthening of storm-scale rotation in the more prominent band
   east of the circulation center, and 2) with developing convection
   over west-central NC moving northwestward into a baroclinic zone.

   DISCUSSION...Midday surface analysis indicates a sharpening
   baroclinic zone over the western Carolinas in a north-south line
   from near/immediately east of Spartanburg, SC northward to 35 mi
   northeast of Hickory, NC.  Temperatures east of the boundary have
   warmed into the upper 70s over SC Piedmont and slightly warmer
   farther north into NC with lower 80s observed near Charlotte.  A
   very moisture rich airmass featuring mid 70s surface dewpoints in
   combination with some heating will yield sufficient buoyancy for
   sustained strong updraft development for a couple of storms.  It
   seems the most vorticity rich low levels will continue to be near
   the boundary.  The Greer, SC 88D VAD shows an enlarged hodograph
   with 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH when accounting for observed storm
   motions.  Given the adequate buoyancy/SRH in place, a couple of
   supercells with an occasional tornado threat seems probable through
   the early and into the mid afternoon.

   ..Smith.. 08/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34458283 36298110 36468073 36118021 35628026 33368203
               34458283