Mesoscale Discussion 1532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

   Areas affected...Western Shore of Apalachee Bay

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 441...

   Valid 161420Z - 161615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 441 continues.

   SUMMARY...The waterspout/tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours
   will be highest across the western Apalachee Bay shore in the
   Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar and IR satellite trends show convection
   being focused along a confluent rain band associated with tropical
   storm Fred off the west coast of the FL peninsula and into Apalachee
   Bay. Easterly winds are advecting higher theta-e air (characterized
   by dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s) from the FL peninsula into the
   rain band, which is supporting transient convection. This trend
   should continue in the near term, and 150-200 m2/s2 SRH in the
   lowest 1-2 km (as sampled by the KTLH VWP) is allowing for periods
   of weak rotation with some of these storms. Although the
   thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable with northern and
   westward extent across the FL panhandle, storms propagating along
   the rain band and onto the western shore of Apalachee bay will pose
   the risk for brief waterspouts/tornadoes. Given the slow motion of
   the tropical storm, this band will likely remain focused south of
   the Tallahassee, FL - primarily across the Franklin county area -
   over the next 1-2 hours. The tornado threat is still expected to
   gradually shift northward through the rest of the day.

   ..Moore.. 08/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29488509 29648528 29888501 30018469 30108447 30088419
               29908420 29808431 29708445 29598474 29488509