Mesoscale Discussion 1495
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

   Areas affected...Central IL...Northwest IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120816Z - 121015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail may occur across
   central IL and northwest IN over the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms continued to develop along and
   ahead of the cold front pushing slowly southeastward across northern
   IL. A predominantly multicellular mode has been observed over the
   past hour or so, with occasional development of downdrafts strong
   enough to penetrate the low-level stability and produce gusts at the
   surface. Updrafts have been generally transient, likely a result of
   only modest vertical shear. 

   The trends observed over the past hour will likely persist, with
   strong buoyancy supporting occasionally robust updrafts amid a
   generally disorganized storm mode. Given the ample low-level
   moisture, a few wet downbursts may be strong enough to reach the
   surface and produce damaging wind gusts. Storm mergers may also
   result in updrafts strong enough for hail, although the warm
   thermodynamic profiles may the hail threat less likely. Overall,
   isolated severe thunderstorms are possible within the extended
   portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430, but an additional watch is
   not anticipated.

   ..Mosier/Edwards.. 08/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41109093 41638876 41838719 41578589 40798659 40079062
               41109093