Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

   Areas affected...Northern/Central MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 110949Z - 111115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible but the overall risk for
   any severe thunderstorms appears low.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have begun to develop within the
   warm sector ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across
   eastern NE.  Recent water vapor imagery shows the ascent attendant
   to this system well (in the form of cooling cloud tops across
   northern/central). Steep mid-level lapse rates are in place,
   contributing to moderate buoyancy. In contrast, vertical shear is
   relatively modest, particularly in the layer where the buoyancy
   resides (roughly above 700 mb). As such, updraft longevity will
   likely be tempered, which should also limit any hail potential.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39529464 40149361 40499191 40139084 39049105 38679320
               38799466 39529464