Mesoscale Discussion 1434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MN...northeastern IA...and
   southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072046Z - 072245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...All severe hazards remain possible this afternoon, but
   overall storm coverage is uncertain. Watch issuance is still
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms occurring through much of the day across
   southern MN into southwestern WI have largely remained elevated
   while posing an isolated hail/wind threat. Recent visible and
   satellite imagery suggests that some attempt at surface-based storm
   development is underway across south-central MN along a convectively
   reinforced warm front. If this activity can strengthen over the next
   couple of hours, then it would pose a threat for all severe hazards,
   as MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear
   present across the warm sector will be favorable for organized
   updrafts. A small cluster is also present across southwestern WI,
   and this activity should pose mainly an isolated damaging wind
   threat in the short term as it moves eastward. The main uncertainty
   is overall coverage of surface-based storms, as large-scale forcing
   behind an MCV moving into WI remains unclear. Any tornado potential
   will likely remain focused along the warm front where the greatest
   low-level shear is present owing to backed surface winds. At this
   point, watch issuance remains possible, and will largely be
   dependent on the development of additional surface-based storms
   along the front.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44239353 43759025 43338872 42578894 42539078 42579277
               42989364 43789392 44239353