Mesoscale Discussion 1432
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071929Z - 072100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two supercells capable of isolated severe hail and
   a damaging wind gust or two are expected to move across eastern
   Colorado this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A storm has developed on the cool side of a cold front
   moving south across eastern Colorado. As temperatures continue to
   warm near this front, expect one or two additional storms to
   develop. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is around 40 knots which will
   support rotating updrafts with the initial storm in Elbert County
   already showing supercell characteristics. Expect this storm and any
   additional development (possibly beginning in Lincoln County) to
   continue east through the afternoon toward an increasingly unstable
   airmass. Initially weak instability but moderate shear may promote
   supercells with isolated large hail and perhaps a severe wind gust.
   However, as these storms encounter greater instability, stronger
   updrafts and upscale growth is anticipated. Eventually a severe
   thunderstorm watch may need to be issued for the increasing damaging
   wind threat across portions of western Kansas.

   ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39330428 39810301 39620207 39450177 38780192 38390209
               38350310 38590406 39330428