Mesoscale Discussion 1412
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011551Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
   afternoon across central and eastern NC. Primary threat with these
   storms will be damaging wind gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado
   or two may also occur. Given these threats a watch will likely be
   needed across portions of central and eastern NC.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central NC
   (about 20-25 miles southwest of RDU). A warm front extends
   northeastward from this low (roughly along the 80 deg F isotherm),
   while a cold front extends back west-southwestward. Surface wind and
   pressure observations also suggest that a modest pre-frontal trough
   extends southwest from the low, back into central SC. The area of NC
   ahead of the surface low and pre-frontal trough is characterized by
   temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Based on
   recent mesoanalysis and modified RAP forecast sounding, any
   remaining convective inhibition is minimal, with moderate buoyancy
   in place. 

   Cumulus field in the immediate vicinity of the surface has been
   deepening over the past hour, and given the air mass destabilization
   and mesoscale ascent attendant to the surface low, convective
   initiation will likely occur soon. Farther east across the remainder
   of eastern NC, skies are currently clear, but thunderstorms are
   still expected this afternoon as storms that develop over central NC
   move into the region and/or in-situ development occurs within the
   destabilized warm sector. Primary severe threat is damaging wind
   gusts. However, tornadoes are still possible, particularly if
   surface winds retain more of a southerly component into the
   afternoon. A tornado or two could also occur near the warm front (as
   discussed in MCD #1411). Isolated hail is also possible. Given these
   threats a watch will likely be needed across portions of central and
   eastern NC.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35527914 35827860 36097768 36157690 36177663 35957627
               35597641 35227702 34877788 34707862 34767945 35087955
               35247941 35527914