Mesoscale Discussion 1405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Wisconsin into
   extreme southeast Minnesota and far northeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311806Z - 312030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of damaging gusts and large hail may
   occur with the stronger, longer-lasting storms. However, the overall
   brevity and sparse coverage of the severe threat suggests that a WW
   issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete multicellular clusters have been
   gradually intensifying across portions of Wisconsin over the past
   couple of hours, with more isolated convective development underway
   to the WI/MN border (per latest MRMS mosaic radar data). These
   storms are developing along/immediately ahead of a southward
   propagating surface cold front. With surface temperatures warming
   into the mid 70s F ahead of the front (shown by the latest METAR
   observations), modest (i.e. 6-7 C/km) low-level lapse rates are
   developing beneath -11 to -13C 500 mb temperatures, resulting in
   500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 17Z mesoanalysis). 40+ kts of 500 mb
   northwesterly flow atop relatively weak westerly surface winds is
   contributing to modest (i.e. 25 kts) effective bulk shear values. 

   The current thermodynamic/kinematic environment supports continued
   intensification of multicellular clusters through the afternoon
   hours, with a couple of damaging gusts and perhaps some marginally
   severe hail possible with the stronger, longer-lived updrafts.
   However, given the skinny CAPE profiles amid mediocre deep-layer
   shear, any severe threat that materialized is expected to be brief
   and isolated. As such, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/31/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44069289 45299112 45399009 45148914 44778825 44488791
               43968766 43468765 43168770 42958786 42898803 42818888
               42748989 42639094 42619209 42779259 43529304 44069289