Mesoscale Discussion 1396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

   Areas affected...Central NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 302024Z - 302230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour
   or so. Strong wind gusts should be the primary threat with any
   storms but isolated hail and a tornado or two are also possible.
   Given these threats, a watch will likely be needed by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 40 miles
   west of MHN in northwest NE. A warm front extends southeastward from
   this low across central and southeast NE. Limited mixing in the
   vicinity of this front amid persistent low-level moisture advection
   has contributed to swath of 70-75 deg F dewpoints across central NE.
   Surface temperatures have recently climbed into the upper 80s/low
   80s, effectively eroding convective inhibition while also contribute
   to strong buoyancy. Visible satellite imagery has some deeper
   cumulus near the surface low and the current prediction is for
   eventual convective initiation in this area. 

   Much of this region is on the southern edge of the better flow
   aloft, and the expectation is for initial development to be
   outflow-dominant. The overall thermodynamic profile appears very
   favorable for strong downdrafts. As such, strong wind gusts appear
   to be the primary threat. That being said, the strength of the
   buoyancy could still lead to isolated hail production. As the storm
   move eastward, and more southeasterly/easterly component to the
   surface will should contribute to an increase in low-level vertical
   shear. Additionally, strong vertical vorticity is in place near the
   warm front. These factors will contribute to the potential for a
   tornado or two. Given these anticipated threats and expectation for
   storm initiation within the hour, a watch will likely be needed by
   21Z.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 07/30/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42020181 42300133 42370031 42129921 41809816 41429760
               40879761 40299820 40299880 40419945 40750088 41040176
               41350208 41500212 42020181