Mesoscale Discussion 1361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

   Areas affected...Northern WI...southern Upper MI...northwest Lower
   MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270450Z - 270545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts embedded within a progressive linear
   segment should persist for another couple hours, but an overall
   weakening trend is anticipated overnight. Tree and power line damage
   are the main threats across northeast WI into parts of MI. Isolated
   severe hail may persist within a narrow corridor across northwest
   WI.

   DISCUSSION...Overall CAPPI trends, echo tops, and IR cloud top
   temperatures, along with increasing discontinuities in 45-dBZ
   reflectivities suggest the southeast-progressing MCS is in a
   large-scale decaying phase. Nevertheless, the 45-50 kt forward
   progression along with several measured gusts of 35-50 kt suggest
   that scattered tree damage should persist in the near-term across
   northeast WI into southern Upper MI. The more prominent wind damage
   threat should exist across northeast WI where residual steep
   low-level lapse rates persist atop the nocturnal boundary-layer, as
   this region had warmed through the 80s earlier today. Expectation is
   for this MCS to weaken more abruptly as it reaches Lake MI and
   further decay with a stable air mass farther east into Lower MI.

   Isolated severe hail may continue within the low-level
   warm-advection regime in the wake of this MCS across northwest WI.
   Overall spatial extent of this threat will probably remain too
   limited to warrant another severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Grams.. 07/27/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46108712 46078565 46108499 45738483 44988513 44238568
               43768605 43598673 43618790 43758852 44248953 44639010
               45149066 45939179 46469205 46829190 46749099 46099009
               45738913 45998770 46108712