Mesoscale Discussion 1346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

   Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far western
   Oklahoma...and extreme northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252157Z - 252330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across the area this
   afternoon. Extreme instability will support brief potential for
   severe hail and wind with the strongest thunderstorm updrafts. Weak
   shear should limit the overall severe threat. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within a
   band of low-level convergence associated with the lee trough.
   Extreme instability, most-unstable CAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg, may
   support brief, isolated large hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
   with the strongest updraft pulses. However, weak effective-layer
   shear -- between 10-15 knots -- will limit overall thunderstorm
   organization to storm-scale processes. Thunderstorm intensity should
   wane later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. The
   overall disorganized nature of the threat should preclude the need
   of a watch.

   ..Marsh/Grams.. 07/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36800127 36950094 36959975 36709946 35609948 34659950
               34109971 33510045 33850150 34990158 36190138 36800127