Mesoscale Discussion 1338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern SD into west-central MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...389...

   Valid 240610Z - 240745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388, 389
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat should continue
   into west-central Minnesota early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A wind gust to 63 mph was recently measured at a
   mesonet site in far northeastern SD with a small cluster of storms.
   There is convection occurring ahead of this cluster in a low-level
   warm advection regime across west-central MN. Still, the airmass
   downstream across this region remains somewhat favorable for
   surface-based storms, with around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present per
   latest mesoanalysis estimates. The influence of glancing ascent
   associated with an upper-level trough and modestly enhanced
   mid-level winds should continue to support storm organization early
   this morning. With the mainly linear structure ongoing ahead of a
   surface cold front, isolated strong to severe winds gusts should
   remain the primary threat in the short term. Some hail may also
   occur. It remains unclear how long the severe threat will continue
   across MN, as the better boundary-layer instability and potential
   for surface-based storms will probably remain slightly to the south
   of a convectively reinforced boundary extending across central MN.

   ..Gleason.. 07/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44879536 45309682 45869650 46229650 46559649 46749605
               46739506 46269450 45119438 44869475 44879536