Mesoscale Discussion 1308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
   England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

   Valid 172038Z - 172215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for mainly damaging wind gusts will continue
   through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of loosely organized storms have
   developed this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
   southern New England. One area of perhaps the best damaging wind
   potential should exist across parts of western MD and central PA in
   the short term. Here a broken line of storms will likely continue to
   move eastward over the next couple of hours. The airmass downstream
   of this activity should remain favorable for strong/gusty convective
   downdrafts to reach the surface and cause mainly tree damage.
   Farther south into northern VA and vicinity, the low/mid-level flow
   quickly weakens per recent VWPs from KLWX. Accordingly, storms have
   struggled to maintain intensity with southward extent across the
   Mid-Atlantic. Still, an isolated damaging wind threat should
   continue across this region in the short term with any storms that
   can persist given the steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
   boundary-layer instability present.

   Slightly stronger deep-layer shear is present along/near a warm
   front located across southern NY and into southern New England.
   Occasional supercells may occur in this regime, with around 30-35 kt
   of effective bulk shear per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Some
   marginal hail and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible near
   the warm front in the short term, but damaging wind gusts should
   continue to be the main threat through the remainder of the
   afternoon across a majority of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382.

   ..Gleason.. 07/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38217899 39497871 40087836 40767773 41127743 41867713
               42507635 42717485 42697333 42697224 42587166 42057144
               41357179 41287236 40507379 39357566 38447651 38177805
               38217899