Mesoscale Discussion 1303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

   Areas affected...central Kansas into northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171227Z - 171430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong thunderstorm winds, briefly approaching
   60 mph at times, may occur this morning with thunderstorms across
   central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma. A watch should not be needed
   this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue across central
   Kansas into northwest Arkansas associated with persistent warm-air
   advection in the 925-850 millibar layer. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles
   yielding effective-layer CAPE around 1500 J/kg and precipitable
   water values between 1.5 and 2.0 inches may support an occasional
   water-loaded downdraft capable of producing thunderstorm winds
   around 60 mph this morning. However, modest low-level and mid-level
   lapse rates of 5.5-6.5 C/km and weak effective-layer shear
   (generally less than 20 knots) should limit a more widespread severe
   wind threat. 

   Farther north, across north-central Kansas, thunderstorms have
   recently intensified along the leading edge of a remnant MCV from
   overnight convection.  Here, effective-layer shear is a little
   better than farther south (generally around 25 knots). This may
   support a slightly more organized wind threat than farther south,
   but similar low-level and mid-level lapse rates as farther south and
   weaker instability should limit the overall severe potential.

   In both scenarios, a watch is not currently expected.

   ..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38609970 39729868 40029820 39939763 39429765 38699703
               37929532 36919363 36299303 35819278 35479323 35659455
               36549694 37569886 37999960 38609970