Mesoscale Discussion 1300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern
   Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...far southeast New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162151Z - 162345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger
   storms through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat is
   expected to gradually wane by sunset.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts multicellular clusters
   in progress across portions of central PA, with some recent linear
   organization noted. These storms are progressing into a well-mixed
   boundary layer, characterized by 7+ C/km sfc-3km lapse rates atop 90
   F surface temperatures, contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given
   the well-mixed boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport
   with some of the stronger storm cores may foster a couple damaging
   gusts, though the overall severe threat is expected to remain
   relatively sparse given weak vertical shear profiles. By sunset, the
   boundary layer will begin to cool/decouple, with the isolated
   damaging gust threat gradually diminishing.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40267806 40727741 41217662 41507572 41777503 41867431
               41647378 41247359 40877365 40577416 40467469 40157538
               40067596 40017669 39997749 40267806