Mesoscale Discussion 1298
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

   Areas affected...southern Indiana and Ohio...northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161710Z - 162115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase of storms is expected through the
   afternoon, and a few could produce locally strong wind gusts across
   southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...A belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterlies currently
   exists across the region, with an instability gradient situated
   across southern IL and IN and into central OH. Visible imagery shows
   good heating across much of the region, and southwesterly surface
   winds will maintain higher theta-e across the OH Valley this
   afternoon.

   Isolated storms are currently developing over southern IL ahead of
   an MCV, and over southeast IN where low-level warm/moist advection
   is maximized. Continued heating and sufficient surface convergence
   should support more storm development over the next several hours.
   Aforementioned midlevel wind speeds may allow for a few fast moving,
   forward propagating storms capable of strong outflow winds, mainly
   along the instability gradient. Poor lapse rates aloft as well as
   the weak shear should limit severe coverage and organization, with a
   watch unlikely as a result.

   ..Jewell/Dial.. 07/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38358366 37658778 37888811 38518813 39368538 39958425
               40158325 40018266 39628254 39208273 38878291 38358366