Mesoscale Discussion 1294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151932Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible later this afternoon,
   with a threat of locally damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...At 1930Z, convection is gradually increasing near a
   weak surface boundary across southeast KS into southwest MO, in
   advance of an MCV moving across south-central KS. While widespread
   clouds are noted across much of the area, somewhat more substantial
   heating has occurred to the south/east of the boundary, where some
   clearing has occurred this afternoon. Where temperatures have risen
   into the mid/upper 80s F, MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2500
   J/kg range, per recent mesoanalyses. A few strong storms may evolve
   along this instability axis this afternoon, as modestly enhanced
   midlevel flow associated with the MCV overspreads the region. A few
   briefly organized cells/clusters will be possible, with locally
   damaging winds possible where low-level lapse rates have steepened. 

   Another round of potentially strong storms will be possible this
   evening across the same general region, as a low-level jet becomes
   focused into the area.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37199398 36599546 36339608 36319665 36949660 37099646
               37459613 37789560 37919536 38639406 38759384 38929338
               38339269 37899261 37779288 37419346 37199398