Mesoscale Discussion 1285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

   Areas affected...East-Central Nevada into Southwest Utah

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142035Z - 142200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may pose a threat for gusty
   outflow winds and severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating over the region has led to the
   development of widely scattered convection over high
   terrain/terrain-favored areas. This convective development is
   occurring within an environment characterized by weak instability
   (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and weak deep-layer shear. That said, strong
   low- and mid-level lapse rates favoring inverted-v forecast
   soundings should support a marginal severe threat, with gusty
   outflow winds and severe hail possible in the strongest cells this
   afternoon. With time, cold pools may merge and lead to a small
   cluster or two of storms that could prolong the severe wind
   potential into the evening hours. The overall threat is expected to
   remain mostly isolated though, thus a watch is not anticipated at
   this time.

   ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   38191554 38011625 38861676 39501635 40321516 40611427
               40031325 38571184 37761124 37231170 37371298 38171447
               38291519 38191554