Mesoscale Discussion 1274
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0556 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

   Areas affected...Central/East-Central/Southeast AZ...Far
   West-Central NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132256Z - 140100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging downbursts are possible over
   the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop within the
   warm and modestly moist air mass across the Southwest. Storm motion
   has been predominantly westward, with the exception of the storms
   near PRC, which moved eastward. This varying motion is evidence of
   the weakly sheared environment void of strong steering flow.
   Additionally, this weak vertical shear is also resulting in short
   updraft duration. New development will likely continue to occur on
   storm outflow, but the overall severe threat appears limited due to
   the weak vertical shear and relatively modest instability. Even so,
   a few strong updrafts are still possible, mostly as a result of
   storm mergers, with the potential to produce isolated hail and
   damaging downburst winds.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   35191224 35431180 35271098 34460875 33430861 33160923
               32840968 32150994 31411048 31591155 32841112 33581144
               34421250 35191224