Mesoscale Discussion 1242
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

   Areas affected...central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102009Z - 102145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An additional brief tornado or two remains possible with
   the longer lasting, more dominant updrafts over the next couple of
   hours. The very brief, localized nature of the severe threat
   precludes a WW issuance at this time, though trends will continue to
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV has recently developed across west-central IL in
   association with the remnants of an older MCS that has propagated
   out of MO earlier this morning. A few discrete supercells have
   developed in close proximity to the MCV center, including a
   relatively more dominant supercell with a history of brief tornadoes
   over the past 1-2 hours. Ahead of the MCV cluster, locally backed
   surface winds have been noted, which are likely locally enhancing
   low-level shear, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH, as shown by the
   1918Z KILX VWP. 

   Nonetheless, buoyancy is quite scant, with well under 500 J/kg
   MLCAPE present ahead of the MCV. In addition, precipitation and
   clouds ahead of the MCV will continue to hinder more robust surface
   heating and subsequent instability from manifesting. As such, the
   tornado threat is expected to remain relatively limited overall,
   with a brief tornado or two likely with the most dominant storms. A
   WW issuance is not anticipated, though trends will continued to be
   monitored for an increase in the tornado threat.

   ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 07/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40289035 40518997 40738922 40798861 40568797 40208779
               39798798 39638858 39698947 39808999 39859036 40289035