Mesoscale Discussion 1212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...Central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091828Z - 092030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An elevated severe-hail-producing storm in Boone County
   Iowa may persist for the next couple of hours.  Given the expected
   limited spatiotemporal nature of the hail threat, a severe
   thunderstorm watch is currently not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed in a
   warm-advection regime across central Iowa with a history of
   producing severe hail. Given the favorable MUCAPE and effective
   deep-layer shear, severe hail will continue to be a threat from this
   storm as it moves south-southeastward along the instability
   gradient.  Additional severe storms are not anticipated until later
   this afternoon/evening when better large-scale forcing for ascent
   moves in from the west.  Thus, a watch is currently not anticipated
   over the next couple hours, but convective trends will continue to
   be monitored.

   ..Jirak/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42049415 42219394 42079356 41659328 41329316 41089321
               40929348 41289397 42049415