Mesoscale Discussion 1188
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0611 PM CDT Wed Jul 07 2021

   Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania...Southern New
   York...Southern New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...345...

   Valid 072311Z - 080115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344, 345
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will continue for several more hours
   as cells track eastward across WW 344 and WW 345.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 23Z shows a quasi-stationary front
   located from near Lake Erie eastward across southern New York into
   southern New England. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints
   are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This is contributing to a
   moderately unstable airmass, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the
   1500 to 2000 J/kg range across the northern parts of WW 344 and 345.
   In addition to the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is measured near 35
   kt on the Binghamton WSR-88D VWP. This appears representative of the
   amount of shear across the northern part of the watches. The shear
   combined with the instability will be sufficient for isolated
   damaging wind gusts, associated with the more organized multicell
   line segments. The threat should be greatest over the next couple
   hours as low-level lapse rates remain steep. As the boundary layer
   cools later this evening, the severe threat should become more
   isolated.

   ..Broyles.. 07/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   42647337 42607124 42387092 41947078 41377099 41067203
               40787520 40867806 41647918 41987931 42307898 42487682
               42627359 42647337