Mesoscale Discussion 1158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0814 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

   Areas affected...Northern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060114Z - 060315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce isolated wind damaging this
   evening as it moves into northern New York, though a watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...KTYX imagery shows a line of storms moving across Lake
   Ontario towards upstate NY. Surface observations from the western
   shore of Ontario reported wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph, and
   velocity data show a few pockets of stronger winds aloft within the
   line. A few isolated cells developing across NY ahead of this line
   suggest that the thermodynamic environment remains supportive of
   convection despite the onset of diurnal cooling and increasing
   low-level stability. Modest mid-level flow between 30-40 knots (as
   sampled by regional VWPs) will help maintain the line at least for
   another 1-2 hours amid waning instability. The general expectation
   is for a few instances of damaging winds as the line moves onshore
   before gradually weakening across central NY later tonight. Given
   the expected weakening trend of the line, a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43417834 43867745 44407654 44737604 44997551 44847480
               44377458 43927461 43377504 43097566 42857644 42767753
               42987802 43417834