Mesoscale Discussion 1154
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

   Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of
   the Texas South Plains area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050526Z - 050730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving southward along the eastern New Mexico/Texas
   border will continue to pose a risk for locally strong/damaging
   winds for at least the next hour or two.  A WW is not anticipated at
   this time, due to small spatial extent of this risk.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined,
   west-to-east-oriented band of storms moving southward across eastern
   New Mexico and adjacent portions of Texas, with 80 kt inbound
   velocity indicated by radar -- indicative of a well-organized band. 
   With a 20 to 25 kt southeasterly low-level jet feeding this
   convection, per recent WSR-88D VWP data, expect this southward
   propagation to continue.

   While a leading band of convection ahead of this main/stronger band
   has led to some airmass stabilization (reducing temperatures into
   the mid 70s and dewpoints to near 60), low-level theta-e advection
   ongoing in conjunction with the low-level jet may continue to
   sustain this rather well-organized band of storms for at least
   another couple of hours.  During this time, strong/damaging winds
   will be possible locally.  However, given small spatial extent of
   this risk, and questions as to duration, preclude immediate
   consideration for ww issuance.  If storms persist for another hour
   or two, and it appears they may encroach on the more moist/unstable
   airmass over the southeastern New Mexico vicinity, the need for a
   new WW may be reconsidered.

   ..Goss/Grams.. 07/05/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35050435 34950363 34930241 34370221 33310241 33020321
               33370422 34490485 34870486 35050435