Mesoscale Discussion 1082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

   Areas affected...Northern missouri and southern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 242319Z - 250015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will be likely this evening ahead of a
   frontal boundary across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. The
   main threats are expected to be damaging winds and large hail,
   though a tornado or two will be possible. A new weather watch is
   likely needed.

   DISCUSSION...2300z visible satellite imagery showed several new
   thunderstorms developing along and north of a frontal zone from
   northern Missouri through southern Iowa. These storms are ongoing in
   an environment characterized by 2000-3500 J/kg of MCLAPE and 30 to
   40 kts of effective shear. To the north of the front, low-level
   shear is substantially weaker as sampled by the DMX VWP suggesting
   more of a wind and hail threat for eastward extent. Some initial
   tornado threat may also exists across portions of northwestern
   Missouri with supercells upstream over eastern Kansas. Additional
   storm development along the front will likely result in upscale
   growth with a greater threat of wind and hail this evening. A new
   watch will be needed shortly.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   39059495 39759525 40429532 40849495 41089368 41079273
               40669218 40059254 39489340 39089409 38949475 39059495