Mesoscale Discussion 1077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into far northwest Kansas.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241949Z - 242145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity expected.

   DISCUSSION...Storms which initially formed on the Front Range have
   since moved off into the Plains. Buoyancy is still quite weak in
   this region, but continues to increase as the boundary layer warms
   and moistens in upslope flow across eastern Colorado. Expect these
   storms to persist eastward and eventually become severe as they
   encounter a more unstable airmass and better moisture. This process
   may be gradual, but once storms can strengthen, strong supercells
   will be possible given 45 to 50 knots of effective shear and
   increasing instability. Storms will likely grow upscale into the
   evening and may pose an increasing wind damage threat as this
   occurs. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch is anticipated eventually for this
   activity, but convective trends will need to be monitored to
   correctly assess when a watch is appropriate.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39570407 39950375 40060244 40120161 40010097 39880087
               39190078 38710125 38520186 38630342 39100396 39570407