Mesoscale Discussion 1075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Montana into west-central
   Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241911Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible through the
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has destabilized in a region
   extending from near Glacier National Park southeastward to near
   Great Falls. A few stronger updrafts have started to show more
   lightning within the past 30 minutes. Expect storm coverage to
   increase as the compact mid-level shortwave trough drops south out
   of Canada. In addition, as the boundary layer continues to warm,
   expect MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg. The KTFX VWP shows
   around 30 knots of effective shear. This shear combined with the
   weak to moderate instability, should be sufficient for organized
   updrafts, with some weak supercells possible. Isolated severe hail
   and a severe wind gust or two will be possible. Relatively weak
   instability, less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 6km, and
   limited coverage of strong to severe storms will likely preclude the
   need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   49141390 49091470 48161418 46921251 46811194 46771173
               47001112 47651099 49051212 49031281 49141390