Mesoscale Discussion 1064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

   Areas affected...Far northwest Nevada into southeast Oregon

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222137Z - 222330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and hail
   threat late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The threat
   will remain isolated enough to preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...GLM data has shown several scattered lightning strikes
   across east/southeast OR over the past hour associated with
   weak/transient convection. More recently, a slight uptick in
   lightning activity and deeper convective towers within a band of
   agitated cumulus located along a trough axis are noted from
   northwest NV into far southeast OR. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
   show upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the region as well as
   40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. This environment is supportive
   of storm organization if a cell can be sustained and gradually
   mature. In general, coverage of any strong to severe storms is
   expected to be limited given the weak forcing for ascent, and
   convection should lose intensity later this evening with the loss of
   daytime heating. As such, a watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

   LAT...LON   41351849 41631941 42551993 43541956 44261884 44401820
               44461763 44091699 43321679 42431685 41931693 41631724
               41351849