Mesoscale Discussion 1049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

   Areas affected...Vermont and northeast New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...

   Valid 211935Z - 212100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe storm threat continues with a threat for
   damaging wind and possibly some large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Storm intensity has slowly increased across portions of
   northern New York. This process has likely been slowed by a pocket
   of drier air which advected into the region with dewpoints falling
   into the mid 60s at some sites. However, low-level moisture
   continues to advect northward and temperatures remain in the upper
   80s to low 90s across the region with MLCAPE likely remaining in the
   1500 to 2000 J/kg range into the evening. 

   Even showers which have developed in the region have shown rotation,
   indicative of the favorable shear profile in the region. Therefore,
   once stronger updrafts develop, a few intense supercells will be
   possible with the threat for large hail and damaging winds. One such
   storm seems to have developed just north of the Canadian border
   north of the VT/NY border, possibly showing what may materialize
   farther south in the next few hours. 

   The KCXX VWP continues to show 0-1 SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2 with
   mostly southerly winds across Vermont. Therefore, if these southerly
   surface winds can remain as storms develop and move into the area, a
   locally higher tornado threat may materialize.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42857580 45017481 45137220 44697199 44157200 43467233
               42807380 42657472 42857580