Mesoscale Discussion 1043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

   Areas affected...Northern IN...northwest OH...southern Lower
   Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

   Valid 210351Z - 210445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
   before the 05z expiration of WW 295 for upstream thunderstorms
   posing a severe risk into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis shows a composite warm
   front/outflow boundary near the IN/OH/MI border, with a recent
   increase in strong/isolated severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of
   the front.  A strengthening low-level jet will focus warm/moist
   advection in the vicinity of the front during the early overnight
   hours, providing a feed of unstable air into the region as
   strong/severe thunderstorms currently over northeast IL continue to
   move east.  Current indications, supported by recent high-res
   guidance, are for a continued severe threat beyond the scheduled 05z
   expiration of ww 295.  This will necessitate coordination of a new
   watch prior to that time.

   ..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42938610 42858466 42798367 42388314 41858296 41338284
               40988300 40768436 40558540 40628614 41008686 41788671
               42938610