Mesoscale Discussion 1022
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0714 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

   Areas affected...southern Michigan...northeast Indiana...and
   northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200014Z - 200145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent vigorous storm development along the eastern shore
   of Lake Michigan may pose a risk for mainly damaging wind gusts or
   severe hail this evening. Storms may continue into the first part of
   the overnight across Ohio and Indiana. A weather watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC, KIWX radar data showed several
   strong/severe storms developing along a modified lake
   breeze/stationary front across southern Michigan and northern
   Indiana. Visible data shows several areas of agitated cumulus along
   the front and ahead of the ongoing storms suggesting additional
   development is likely. SPC mesoanalysis indicates these storms are
   moving into an environment supportive of severe weather potential
   with moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and sufficient
   deep-layer shear (30-40 kts) for organized updrafts. Straight but
   elongated hodographs and shear vectors largely parallel to the
   stationary front will favor more linear/cluster modes as increasing
   storm coverage/interactions develop. Damaging winds appear to be the
   greatest threat though the degree of buoyancy and some potential for
   initial supercell structures may also support a threat for large
   hail. Low confidence in convective evolution exists currently.
   However, if a deeper cold pool can develop concurrent with an
   increase in the low-level jet, damaging wind potential may increase
   downstream across portions of northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio
   later tonight. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible
   weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/20/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42378615 42358513 42238456 41758419 41388411 40838404
               40388412 40018445 39758521 39848586 40318666 40698692
               40968705 41198725 41458739 41748729 41948686 42158649
               42378615