Mesoscale Discussion 1006
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern
   Alabama...Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 190608Z - 190845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat will be possible in the coastal areas
   from far southeast Louisiana eastward to the western Florida
   Panhandle. Weather watch issuance may be needed along this portion
   of the coast later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A tropical weather system is currently located near the
   coast of Louisiana about 40 statute miles to the south-southeast of
   Morgan City. A north-to-south band of moderate to heavy rainfall is
   located about 50 statute miles to northeast of the center extending
   inland about 100 statute miles. This band of rainfall is located
   along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating
   MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Mobile WSR-88D VWP
   currently has a looping hodograph with 0-1 km shear near 40 kt and
   0-3 storm relative helicity near 475 m2/s2. The strong low-level
   shear will likely support a tornado threat as the band of rainfall
   moves eastward along the coast. Supercells with a potential for
   tornadoes will also be possible just to the east of the band. The
   tornado threat may continue for several more hours as the band moves
   across far southern Alabama and into the far western Florida
   Panhandle around daybreak.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/19/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30738948 31138883 31248772 31228680 31128640 30778625
               30508629 30218672 29978815 29568903 29458916 29408934
               29478973 30048974 30738948