Mesoscale Discussion 0998
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0503 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

   Areas affected...northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182203Z - 182330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent thunderstorm development will likely continue this
   afternoon and evening across northern Minnesota. A few severe gusts
   or isolated severe hail may occur with the stronger storms. A
   weather watch is likely not needed.

   DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite data showed several
   developing thunderstorms across northern and northwestern Minnesota.
   These storms are ongoing in a relatively dry post-frontal airmass
   ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the upper Midwest. Only
   modest buoyancy, around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE, is present thanks to
   strong diurnal heating and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8C/km.
   The limited buoyancy suggests storm coverage should remain isolated
   through the afternoon and evening. Some potential for damaging wind
   gusts appears possible given a dry sub-cloud layer with T/TD spreads
   near 40 degrees F. Some potential for marginally severe hail may
   also exist with the stronger cores aloft as storms move into north
   central Minnesota later this evening. Given limited storm coverage
   and uncertainty regarding severe potential, a watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48399583 48359460 48129395 47779368 47279342 46529376
               46189477 46359562 46799649 47639671 48279621 48399583