Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

   Areas affected...East-central IL into northern IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181752Z - 181915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The short-term threat remains uncertain, but developing
   convection is being monitored for any increase in coverage and
   intensity, which would pose a conditional threat of hail and
   damaging wind. Short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely at
   this time.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased along a narrow band
   running from far east-central IL into northern IN, east of an
   apparent MCV moving out of IA. While this convection is likely
   elevated, it is occurring within an environment of steep midlevel
   lapse rates, with strong diabatic heating underway downstream.
   Locally severe hail is likely the primary short-term threat, as long
   as the ongoing convection remains elevated and somewhat
   disorganized. 

   The more substantial, and also more uncertain, concern is for the
   ongoing convection to continue to deepen, which would potentially
   result in more intense and organized storms capable of a more
   substantial hail and wind risk. While MLCINH is weakening across
   portions of IL/IN as temperatures warm into the 90s F, it will
   likely still take some time for storms to become rooted closer to
   the surface, if they do at all, and it is possible that ongoing
   convection will remain weak or dissipate this afternoon. Watch
   issuance in the near term is considered unlikely, but will continue
   to be reassessed if there is any sign of an uptick in the short-term
   severe threat.

   ..Dean/Dial.. 06/18/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40008698 40018789 40228842 40638831 40888675 40968571
               40718543 40258573 40008698