Mesoscale Discussion 0985
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021

   Areas affected...South FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162339Z - 170115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A damaging wind gust or two may occur with the convective
   line moving into South Florida.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a fast-moving convective line
   extending from about 50 miles southwest of APF (off the southeast FL
   coast) to about 40 miles northeast MTH/50 miles south-southwest of
   MIA (just off the far southern FL coast). Recent estimates place the
   motion of this line around 35 kt, which matches the recent gust at
   MTH as the line moved through. Recent KAMX radar imagery also shows
   a pocket of stronger inbound velocities around 3000 ft within the
   leading edge of the line 10 miles or so south of the southern
   Miami-Dade County line. Increased forward motion was also noted
   within this portion of the line. This surge may have been associated
   with interaction with a southwestward moving outflow, which briefly
   strengthened updrafts/downdrafts.

   Instability downstream across most of southern FL has recently been
   tempered by abundant cloud cover and ongoing showers and
   thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is also weaker across south FL than
   the environment over the FL Keys. The outflow is expected to
   continue northeastward, but the modest instability and weak shear
   should keep storm intensity along the boundary rather limited, with
   a diminishing trend expected over time. Even so, a few stronger,
   water-loaded downbursts may still occur, augmenting the storm motion
   and leading to isolated damaging wind gusts.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25838195 26168148 26118080 26018038 25858013 25528005
               25128024 25068056 25348139 25838195