Mesoscale Discussion 0977
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

   Areas affected...northern Florida Peninsula through the Florida
   Panhandle and far southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151733Z - 152000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
   northern Florida into the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. A few
   instances of downburst winds will be possible with the stronger
   storms.

   DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon thunderstorms are ongoing in
   vicinity of a differential heating boundary across central and north
   central Florida. Farther north, the atmosphere continues to
   destabilize from the northern Florida Peninsula through the FL
   Panhandle and extreme southern GA. Latest objective analysis shows
   MLCAPE from 3000-3500 J/kg. The 12Z morning RAOB data from JAX and
   TLH indicated minimal convective inhibition. Thunderstorms will soon
   develop along an east-west oriented pre-frontal trough and in
   association with sea breeze boundaries as the surface layer
   destabilizes in the presence of strong diabatic heating. Though
   vertical shear is weak and supportive of pulse / multicell storms,
   the thermodynamic environment will promote a threat of isolated
   downburst winds through early evening.

   ..Dial/Grams.. 06/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30678419 31078250 31108171 30318158 29318126 28808103
               28738194 29598266 30098385 30058520 30448606 30608679
               30568748 30998723 30888558 30678419