Mesoscale Discussion 0949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

   Areas affected...central and eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131808Z - 131945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms may evolve off the higher terrain and
   DCVZ early this afternoon. Weak shear should limit organization
   potential into a few stronger multi-cell updrafts capable of hail or
   isolated damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite imagery showed towering
   cumulus/incipient updrafts deepening along the Front Range and
   Palmer Divide where strong solar heating is taking place.
   Temperatures have warmed into the 70s and near 80F with dewpoints
   ranging from the upper 40s to the west to near 60 F east of I-25.
   While SPC mesoanalysis and RAP soundings indicate substantial MLCINH
   (-100 to -300 J/kg) still exists with eastward extent, a narrow
   corridor of destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) along the
   immediate lee of the higher terrain may support a few strong/severe
   storms early this afternoon. Aided in part by localized convergence
   and orographic influences, MLCINH will gradually erode to the east
   allowing storms, and the associated severe risk to expand onto the
   high plains with time. Deep-layer shear will remain somewhat
   marginal for organized convection at or about 25 kts. This should
   favor a multicellular mode with the primary hazards being hail and
   isolated damaging wind gusts. Given the expected sporadic nature of
   any severe risk, a watch is not likely.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37390512 37970524 38580552 39190572 40410589 40700568
               40590544 39510466 38980445 38540441 38170455 37310479
               37390512