Mesoscale Discussion 0944
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Ohio...southwest
   Pennsylvania into northern West Virginia and northwest Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 131613Z - 131815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe potential is increasing across portions of the
   Mid Atlantic. Damaging winds are the primary threat. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if storms continue to intensify and
   increase in coverage.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters have recently experienced an
   uptick along the southwest flank of an ongoing MCS, on the leading
   edge of the cold pool. The MCS is propagating southward towards 80+
   F surface temperatures, with upper 60s to 70 F dewpoints
   contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Though only 25 kts of effective
   bulk shear are in place, and mid-level lapse rates are generally
   under 6 C/km, continued surface heating with the rich moisture in
   place is expected to support robust storm development into early
   afternoon, both ahead of the MCS cold pool and along the cold front.
   Wet downbursts and merging cold pools may support at least a few
   damaging gusts with the stronger (albeit shorter lived)
   multicellular clusters. Damaging gust potential may be high enough
   to warrant the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the next
   couple of hours.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40308170 40698125 41088070 41338000 41237933 40707854
               39887830 39267812 38887827 38557856 38397910 38377963
               38588043 38928110 39418176 40308170