Mesoscale Discussion 0929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112318Z - 120115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A southward-propagating MCS may evolve across parts of
   southeast Kansas over the next hour and will pose a severe wind
   threat as it moves into northeast Oklahoma. A downstream watch from
   WW 259 is likely within the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery and reflectivity trends from KICT
   show increasingly agitated cumulus and weak returns near the
   intersection of a convective outflow boundary from earlier storms
   over northeast KS and along a surface trough/cold front.
   Additionally, an existing severe cluster over southeast KS is
   becoming increasingly organized and is showing signs of southward
   propagation. Recent RAP mesoanalysis suggests only modest MLCIN
   remains in place along the eastern OK/KS border, and deep-layer
   shear parallel to the initiating outflow boundary will likely foster
   upscale growth as convection tries to mature. As such, an MCS may
   begin to develop over the next 1-2 hours across southeast KS, which
   will likely propagate to the south/southeast into northeast OK
   through the evening hours. Increasing capping with southern and
   western extent introduce some uncertainty into the spatial coverage
   of this threat and the propensity of new convection along the cold
   front/outflow intersection. However if/when an MCS develops, severe
   winds will remain the primary hazard given ample instability and
   strong DCAPE. A downstream watch is likely.

   ..Moore/Dial.. 06/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36969820 37429798 38009754 38339726 38459694 38319666
               38129615 37799504 37399486 36479466 35949479 35739521
               35689588 35739701 35939751 36469807 36969820