Mesoscale Discussion 0922
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

   Areas affected...far southeast NE...far northeast KS...far northwest
   MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

   Valid 111528Z - 111730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may gradually increase through
   12pm and focus mainly across parts of far southeast NE into
   northeast KS.  A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely need to
   be issued during the midday hours for eastern KS and possibly the
   western tier or two of counties in MO.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 1020am shows a southward surge to the
   MCS over the lower MO Valley, with it expected to push south of a
   flanking band of storms on the southwest edge of the complex during
   the next 30-60 minutes.  Once this occurs, expecting the limiting
   effects of the flanking band to cease (i.e., competing cold pool
   development) and the potential for more storm-scale organization to
   proceed as it moves south into the moisture/CAPE axis.  Surface
   temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as of 10am with dewpoints
   in the mid 70s.  Additional heating south of the thunderstorms will
   contribute to additional buoyancy with the 00z HRW-ARW/NSSL forecast
   soundings showing 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE by noon.  It appears the 00z
   model runs of the HRW-ARW and the HRW-NSSL may be best depicting the
   placement and speed of the MCS compared to other 00z and 12z HREF
   membership and the latest HRRR runs.  The MCS is forecast to reach
   the southern edge of the northeastern-most counties of KS by
   1200-1230pm.  A coinciding uptick in severe potential will accompany
   the squall line.  Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts 60-70
   mph are possible.

   ..Smith.. 06/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39369720 40489683 40759566 40259509 39379507 39369720