Mesoscale Discussion 0906
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0217 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

   Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and western UP of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101917Z - 102115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible
   in northern Wisconsin into the western UP of Michigan.
   Semi-organized storms are most likely near the WI/MI border where
   shear is maximized. Some clustering potential exists, but overall
   evolution of the marginal threat is uncertain. No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have begun to initiate along a surface
   boundary as well as along inland-moving lake breeze boundaries in
   northern Wisconsin into the western UP. Continued surface heating
   and perhaps very subtle influence from the southern flank of a
   shortwave trough will likely promote additional storm development
   this afternoon. Stronger mid-level winds across the UP will mean
   storms farther east will tend to be better organized and perhaps
   produce marginally severe hail. However, -8 C temps at 500 mb will
   tend to keep most hail small. The primary threat, however, will
   likely be damaging wind gusts given the very steep lapse rates at
   low levels. With the potential for scattered thunderstorms there is
   some possibility for a slightly  more organized cluster to evolve
   later this afternoon, particularly near the WI/MI border where shear
   is greater. Some CAM guidance has shown this occurring with even
   some potential for such a cluster to propagate southward into the
   axis of greatest buoyancy. Along with uncertainty in the magnitude
   of storm organization, the overall threat for severe weather remains
   marginal. No WW is expected this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46889214 46908984 46668822 45778688 45098721 44468848
               44379019 44549124 45059212 45529270 46129283 46459276
               46889214