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Mesoscale Discussion 900 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021
Areas affected...Northern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092218Z - 092345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible into this evening, with
isolated damaging wind and hail possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently intensified across northern
MN, with additional development possible across northwest MN near a
surface boundary, as an MCV continues drifting over the area and a
stronger shortwave glances the region as it moves across southern
MB. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt will
favor some organization with the strongest storms.
Forward-propagating clusters capable of locally damaging wind appear
to be the primary threat, though a transient supercell cannot be
ruled out, which would also pose a conditional threat of hail or
perhaps a brief tornado.
Any threat will tend to diminish near/after sunset as the boundary
layer cools and stabilizes. Watch issuance is unlikely unless an
uptick in storm coverage and organization is observed in the next
1-2 hours.
..Dean/Dial.. 06/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 48489588 49409509 49119383 48919304 48069274 48009273
47299277 46889329 46609389 46739518 47299631 47779656
48189622 48489588
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